This is a new update following our last update on November 10th.
https://coindefi.medium.com/coin-and-hodlverse-update-1553883efc01
In light of recent events, let’s first start with our analysis of the current market (as it has influenced consumer sentiment, market confidence, and our execution strategy).
Market Analysis
Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve experienced a strong disruption in the overall market from the downfall of FTX / Alameda. Their failures have led to a crisis in confidence and wiped out billions in global liquidity across the crypto markets. We expect more systematic risk and contagion to spread in the industry and drag the market down further. At the same time, are expecting more companies to fail, further liquidity issues, and more. Our analysis is based on the following factors:
- No short-term catalysts
- Ongoing pandemic
- Lower corporate earnings during the next earnings season because of supply chain issues, global demand slowing, etc.
- Continued inflation and higher energy prices
- Risk of an energy crisis
- Continued global supply chain constraints
- US Mid-term elections
- Contagion risk due to FTX and other impacted parties (Genesis and DCG)
- No clarity on the Russia/Ukraine war and other geopolitical conflicts (N. Korea, China, Iran, etc.)
- Less liquidity and a decrease in trust/confidence around the industry from the events at FTX/3AC/Terra — Luna
- Potential higher inflation
- Increasing global interest rates
- Incoming regulation
- Increasing unemployment
There are currently more downside risks than upside so we advise investors to remain on the sidelines. We do expect stocks and crypto to capitulate in the next 6 months and for Bitcoin to hit a cycle bottom between $11–16K (provided no further implosions such as Tether). We also expect volatile trading between $22–40K for most of 2023 and by the next halving in 2024.
The next BTC halving will occur around April 20, 2024. On average, the market peaks 1.3 years after. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see Bitcoin rising to $36K before the halving and $149K after. Our current estimates are not as optimistic as we do not expect to breach the $100K mark until 2025. For stocks, we expect the S&P to fall 10% from current levels and test 3500.
With this said, we are extremely optimistic about the future of blockchain, its utility, and overall potential. We expect to see a large increase in government, institutional, and consumer adoption by the end of 2025. Some examples of this now include:
- Russia is planning a country-controlled crypto exchange and blockchain financial system
- Multiple countries are building the infrastructure for a digital national currency
- Multiple countries are declaring Bitcoin and Ethereum as non-securities
- JP Morgan has trademarked and is building the JPM Wallet
As the market recovers, investors can expect large returns from both large and small-cap companies. In the next six months, we expect to see depressed prices, and low demand/volume, BUT great investment opportunities across different various asset classes such as stocks, crypto, real estate, and more. This will be your opportunity to build a strong financial foundation and create significant wealth for years to come. Now is the time to identify small caps (tokens and NFTs) with large potential as these companies will flourish in a bull market. These companies will also naturally increase in value based on correlation with the overall market. Seek companies that have a strong team, a track record of execution, a business revenue model, and a unique but realistic long-term vision.
We will provide recommendations on target companies and timing once we believe we have reached the bottom. Please note that this analysis can be subject to change based upon unexpected events such as another pandemic, war, or further contagion and failures in the crypto markets (ie. DCG, Tether, Silvergate, etc.) As always, good luck!
TL;DR
- Bitcoin cycle bottom in the first half of 2023: Price target bottom between $11–16K (provided no further implosions)
- Bitcoin price range in S2–2023 to S1–2024: $22–40K
- Bitcoin price target of $100K in 2025
- S&P to fall 10% from current levels and test 3500
The Silver Lining
It’s been one of the most challenging months in the history of crypto and we sympathize with everyone that has been impacted by the turn of events this week. Despite the events that have occurred due to the greed of bad actors in this industry, we remain extremely optimistic about the future of the industry including the technology that it stands on. Over the past ten years, despite all malicious and illegal activity… the technology has flourished and the industry has continued to grow over time. Blockchain technology remains sound and has never failed outside of human involvement and corruption.
For HODLVERSE and Coin, the current events and market conditions represent a massive opportunity in two areas.
Decentralized Exchanges and Interoperability
There is a huge crisis of confidence against centralized exchanges and companies in our industry. From FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, 3AC, and more, consumers have lost trust in human-operated centralized entities. The potential for multi and cross-chain DeFi services and interoperability has never been greater and the timing could not be more perfect. It’s our time to capitalize and maximize on this opportunity.
Timing
Our team has been bearish in the markets for the past year. We have intentionally been patient in not launching prematurely in declining conditions. Doing so would result in the community losing morale due to declining price performance. At the same time, an unattractive performance chart like below which will deter new investors.
As noted in our market analysis above, we expect the market to bottom within the next six months. Launching at the end of a bear market and riding the rise of a bull market is the ideal condition for any asset.
Investment and Launch Strategy
As an update, our investment discussions have slowed due to the events at Alameda / FTX, market sentiment, and US holidays. We’ve seen some VC firms openly communicate losing funds as users on FTX. Meanwhile, many VC firms have become increasingly cautious about deploying capital until there are reduced risks of further contagion and more clarity in the markets. Many investors have communicated they are pausing investment activity until this occurs.
In light of the current economic and market conditions, it’s prudent that we perform diligence on all of our options before making a clear-path decision. While our preference is to operate as a community-driven DAO, we will continue our discussions with VC firms (for investment) and blockchain companies (for grants). If investment terms through VC’s are unfavorable, HODLVERSE will opt for a direct token offering with a reputable launchpad. We are currently in discussions with several including MakerDAO, one of the largest and most reputable launchpads in the industry.
MakerDAO and several investors have recommended that we execute the following in parallel to fundraising:
- Build our Community
- Reboot HODLVERSE and Delete Coin Telegram
To that end, we will start building the HODLVERSE community to demonstrate the ability to gain traction and generate interest in current market conditions. We will also close the Coin Telegram chats to minimize any negative sentiment that could impact the future of HODLVERSE and Coin itself.
To begin building our community, we will deploy a number of marketing activities in the coming weeks. This will include, but are not limited to, AMA Twitter Spaces, partner collaborations, giveaways, and a free mint of the HODLVERSE passport NFT. HODLVERSE represents different blockchain networks as various countries… So it’s only right for citizens to have a passport as they travel between different experiences.
The HODLVERSE Passport NFT enables citizens to mint free decorative NFTs to customize their metaverse environment and match their personality or interests. In phase one, this includes interior assets such as furniture, appliances, etc. to decorate the user’s home. In future phases, exterior assets will be added to decorate the user’s metaverse experience.
In the future, other NFTs will be launched include characters (P4P Avatars) and land plots. Land plots can only be earned and will be airdropped to citizens that become liquidity providers. These strategies will attract new members to the network and our community to test drive and contribute accordingly. The $MONEY token will always be the native token for the ecosystem and aids in the storage and transfer of value within the network.
Launch Strategy
- Build community (Free Mint NFTS, TestNet launch, etc.)
- Obtain funding
- Create liquidity pools on HODLVERSE, Uniswap, and Pancakeswap
- Deploy $MONEY token, staking, and governance smart contracts on Mainnet
- Deploy HODLVERSE network on Mainnet (ETH and BSC chains)
- Release network updates, integrate additional blockchains / cities, deploy function NFTs
- And more...
Coin Wallet and Staking
- Coin Wallet is currently offline due to a service closure. Service costs to keep the Wallet online bear a large cost because of the integration of multiple APIs and services that are required for the DApp to function. In observance of current app usage (which is very low) versus the cost of infrastructure services to support the DApp, we will be temporarily keeping it offline until we have further funding to support these costs. As Coin Wallet is non-custodial, your funds are safe on the blockchain and still accessible using your seed phrase on other popular crypto wallets such as Metamask, MyEtherWallet, etc. Instructions can be found here and here.
- The Coin staking program will continue. We have recently developed a new staking portal that will enable you to connect your wallet, staking, unstake, and claim your rewards accordingly. The new portal uses fewer resources and minimizes our operational costs. We are conducting tests on the new DAPP and will be providing instructions on how to use it upon launch. We expect to launch this within the month. Coin token holders can continue to stake their tokens with no concerns. The Coin staking contract operates as normal and accrues rewards even with the Coin Wallet offline.
Next Steps and Action Items
- Launch the new Coin staking portal (December)
- HODLVERSE Community Building (December)
- Closing Coin Telegram Discussions (December)
The announcement channel will remain while the main and trading discussion channels will be closed. - Look forward to details on how you can get whitelisted for the upcoming HODLVERSE Passport NFT free mint
- If you haven’t already, join the HODLVERSE Discord to stay up-to-date on the latest developments: https://bit.ly/hodlverse
There is a dedicated channel for Coin discusssions as well.
We will continue to share more updates as more news develops. We hope that you are all as excited as we are. Our team strongly believes in the potential of Web3 and the direction that the industry is headed. But most importantly, the opportunity for Coin and HODLVERSE to participate and play a part in this growth.
For more information, please visit hodlverse.com
We also encourage you to visit the following resources to view our progress to date:
- Audited Smart Contracts: https://github.com/hodlverse
- Demos: https://www.youtube.com/c/hodlverse
- MVP Testing Guidelines: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vrNujRy05Rv_bTfRpNN-dUqpxPeK3GybPcDab97Z228/edit?usp=sharing
- TestNet MVP: https://www.app-dev-unity.hodlverse.com
